The Evolution of Global Asymmetric Warfare (2010-2025)

A DIMEFIL Analysis by Region

Introduction:

We live in a multidimensional threat environment unlike anything mankind has ever witnessed.

The battlefield has transformed dramatically over the last fifteen years, yet most remain unaware of this seismic shift. The days of all out conventional style war are not necessarily behind us, as any conflict has the potential to go kinetic, but the current battlefield has grown to an all-encompassing, whole of government, and strategic level concept that primarily utilizes asymmetric warfare to navigate the international intricacies involved.

The existence of asymmetric warfare is not necessarily a new thing. Aspects of it have been used effectively throughout history, including in our own revolution. Colonial forces used guerrilla warfare, psychological operations, and international diplomacy to erode British political and military will through attrition and alliances.

In lieu of tank battles and formal conventional military invasions, the world has seen cyber-attacks, proxy forces, influence campaigns, economic coercion, illicit finance, legal warfare, and espionage become the proverbial weapons of choice. Using these methods blurs the lines between war and peace and allows aggressors to operate in otherwise “gray zones,” below the thresholds required for open war while still accomplishing strategic objectives (Center for Strategic and International Studies).

This new all-encompassing asymmetric warfare is not solely fought on traditional battlefields, but occurs across political processes, economic systems, digital platforms, and civil society, meaning to break down the situation we need to use a process that can account for every aspect of modern life.

This requires a modified Joint Planning Process.

The Joint Planning Process (JPP) recognizes Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Law Enforcement (DIMEFIL) as the core instruments of national power for any country or region (Joint Publication 5-0). Both state and non-state actors have leveraged this spectrum to exploit their adversaries’ weaknesses and ultimately expand their own influence.

This breakdown provides a comprehensive, region by region review of how each element of DIMEFIL has been employed in asymmetric conflicts over the last fifteen years, with a special emphasis on the impact that the COVID-19 had on these strategies. These data trends will be presented alongside concrete examples from military and policy research to illustrate the evolution of global asymmetric warfare.

I would like to warn you; this is a proper regional deep dive into this subject…meaning it is much longer than a five-minute read.

Let’s dive in!